Sea level rise can also lead to coastal erosion and high-tide flooding. 43-68. doi: 10.7930/J0MG7MDX, 3Fann, N., T. Brennan, P. Dolwick, J.L. In this five-part series, we asked several NASA atmospheric scientists to weigh in on the matter. June 28, 2022, at 3:04 a.m. Glob. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, Tiffany H. Morrison,Terry P. Hughes&Lucy Holmes McHugh, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia, Geography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, W. Neil Adger,Katrina Brown&Saffron ONeill, School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, Arun Agrawal,Meha Jain,Maria Carmen Lemos&Derek Van Berkel, Business School, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, You can also search for this author in & Hibbard, M. Planning, governance and rural futures in Australia and the USA: revisiting the case for rural regional planning. Examples of populations at higher risk of exposure to adverse climate-related health threats are shown along with adaptation measures that can help address disproportionate impacts. Both highlight the need for more water in places where supplies are dwindling. Farmer, J. D. et al. 1). & Fletcher, R. The Conservation Revolution: Radical Ideas for Saving Nature Beyond the Anthropocene (Verso, 2020). Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Nature Climate Change (Nat. Climate Change Is Driving 2022 Extreme Heat and Flooding. Such interventions are radical because they use substantially less emissions than other modes of work and transport but deliver elevated levels of human wellbeing75, thereby challenging the dominant premise that economic growth is coupled with wellbeing and must be pursued at all costs73. Due to climate change, the climate of the United States is shifting in ways that are widespread and varied between regions. 197199. However, because outcomes are nonlinear and systemic, understanding how they work together as a group and over time remains challenging6. Ever-clearer evidence of catastrophic climate impacts has not, however, induced the necessary responses. In broader context, the total cost of U.S. billion-dollar disasters over the last 5 years (2016-2020) exceeds $600 billion, with a 5-year annual cost average of $121.3 billion, both of which are new records. In recent years, the impacts of extreme weather and climate change have been felt in communities across the U.S. In many nations, climate-driven disasters and scientific confirmation of temperature shifts have also failed to catalyse policies and votes, refuting assumptions that crisis and evidence will inevitably drive collective commitment and action4,5. Kunkel, A.N. We also explore how radical interventions can be better facilitated and communicated in ways that diverse social actors can appreciate, adopt and support. Clim. When considering the full range of threats from climate change as well as other environmental exposures, these groups are among the most exposed, most sensitive, and have the least individual and community resources to prepare for and respond to health threats. Human health issues can increase mortality, impact food availability, and limit worker productivity. Policy 21, 421433 (2021). Some communities are projected to possibly end up at or below sea level by 2100 and will face decisions around managed retreat and climate adaptation. Nat. In: Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States: Fourth national climate assessment, volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Evol. 35, 216224 (1969). Lewis, T.K. (2018). Geogr. In 2019, public awareness of climate change rose sharply, driven by the schools strikes, Extinction Rebellion, high impact IPCC reports, improved media coverage, a BBC One climate change . A. Lewis, T.K. Proc. CE140100020) to T.H.M. Adaptation helps us prepare for some of the likely effects of climate change by reducing their impacts on ecosystems and people's well-being. IPCC Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Prtner, H.-O. Hayes, S. & ONeill, S. The Greta effect: visualising climate protest in UK media and the Getty images collections. Increased temperatures, drought and water stress, diseases, and weather extremes create challenges for the farmers and ranchers who put food on our tables. The reality is that the poorest communities of color are often the most at . A collage of typical climate and weather-related events: floods, heatwaves, drought, hurricanes, wildfires and loss of glacial ice. But utopian thinking can be much more than simply a way of consoling ourselves that better days will come. Rising temperatures and heat stress can also harm livestock. Sustain. The compounding effects of climate change are leading to many changes in ecosystems. Change 70, 102320 (2021). Fung70, for example, prescribes the generation of a civic immune system whereby an ecology of transparency, accountability and monitoring mechanisms can enhance democracy and minimize regulatory capture and other abuses of power. The typology, which is intended to be provocative, questions the extent that different interventions can disrupt the status quo to address the root drivers of climate change. Kunkel, K.L.M. Climate Action Tracker Global Update: Climate Summit Momentum (New Climate Institute, 2021). Rev. Science 374, 815818 (2021). EPA issued two findings in December 2009 that are necessary precursors to regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. Importantly, transdisciplinary findings on many of these interventions are now directly informing IPCC synthesis on the systems and conditions for transformational change1. The goal of the Green New Deal is to reduce greenhouse gas . However, root drivers are often spatially and temporally disarticulated from everyday experiences of proximate causes and effects. Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Easterling, K.E. The Climate Leadership Council, a bipartisan advocacy group backed by major oil companies , endorses a federal carbon . Global forest restoration and the importance of prioritizing local communities. New directions in earth system governance research. Sustain. et al.) These different interpretations can be viewed as a typology, with each type reflecting the extent to which the intervention disrupts the status quo to address the root drivers of climate change. Agrawal, A., Kaur, N., Shakya, C. & Norton, A. Erbaugh, J. T. et al. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, pp. Kunkel, K.L.M. Sci. Science 347, 13171319 (2015). Global Change Research Program, an interagency research program comprised of 13 federal agencies, has released a comprehensive report about climate change in the United States and what it will mean for our future and way of life. High-tide flooding will soak about 20 north-east cities for at least 30 days a year by 2050, scientists predict, with the region also hit by stronger hurricanes and storms. U.S. Flooding can lead to disease spread and damages to ecosystems and infrastructure. Ecosystems, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. Proc. (2017). Avery, D.R. (2018). Drought can harm food production and human health. Clim. Staudinger, C. Stock, L. Thompson, R. Waples & J.F. 8, 201296 (2021). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Internet Explorer). California Press, 1922). The Redlands Mesa area outside Hotchkiss, Colorado, is particularly at risk to wildfires, but with funding from NOAAs Environmental Literacy Program, local high school students are taking action to tackle their communitys vulnerability to this hazard. Policy Sci. The author team is comprised of 28 climate experts from universities and research institutions across the U.S. Polanyi, K. The Great Transformation (Beacon, 1944). Change 42, 122135 (2017). Science 347, 377378 (2015). 216014/Z/19/Z) to W.N.A and a Leverhulme Research Fellowship (grant no. Here, we directly address the challenge of facilitating a more radical approach to intervention. The World Health Organization has already strategically excluded tobacco companies from the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, with substantial positive effectthis intervention has helped to reduce global tobacco use among men from 50% in 2000 to 38.6% in 2018, and among women from 16.7% in 2000 to 8.5% in 201813,71. Kunkel, K.L.M. In 2012, eleven different extreme weather events, from severe storms and flooding . In some countries, these simplistic debates have led to decades of climate inaction68. Rev. An official website of the United States government. Soc. Texas is getting hotter even at night Sundown isn't providing as much relief, according to a 2021 report published by the state's climatologist. Coral Reefs 35, 857865 (2016). Her maize crop was looking good this season. Coastal infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, water supplies, and much more, is at risk. Easterling, K.E. Now that we have properly justified radical and explained common modes of intervention, the immediate challenge is to ensure that all radical options are assessed rigorously and systematically. Spain, for example, already outperforms the United States in key social indicators (including a life expectancy that is five years longer), despite having 55% less GDP per capita73. Different climate interventions can shift thresholds to avoid (or trigger) transitions (a), manipulate feedbacks to change the shape of the equilibrial relationship between drivers and system state (b), or reduce climate change drivers to avoid transgressing thresholds (c). 268321. Environ. USA 114, 41234128 (2017). Annu. Energy Res. New Political Econ. Stewart (eds.)]. & Maibach, E. Global warmings six Americas: a review and recommendations for climate change communication. 33, 110 (2017). 399403. Article We draw our understanding of radical from the Latin adjective radicalis, meaning of or relating to a root, to identify interventions that address the underlying root drivers of a problem rather than its proximate causes and symptomatic effects6,7,8,9. 237240 and 240242. But these changes are happening too fast for many other plants and animals as increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns stress ecosystems. Rogge, K. S., Kern, F. & Howlett, M. Conceptual and empirical advances in analysing policy mixes for energy transitions. U.S. Rev. Griscom, B. W. et al. Importantly, modifying thresholds and feedbacks (a and b) to tackle proximate impacts and causes will rarely have lasting or meaningful system effects unless the root drivers of climate change are also addressed (c). Barrett, C. B. Examples include shortening the working week (as trialled in France and New Zealand) and investments in non-motorized and public transport (as achieved in the Netherlands and Chile)29. 9, 112123 (2021). 79, 585592 (2022). Hart, H. Stiller & A. Sutton-Grier. Lockley, A. et al. Kunkel, K.L.M. Avery, D.R. Environ. Corbera, E., Roth, D. & Work, C. Climate change policies, natural resources and conflict: implications for development. Natl Acad. Sci. Change 53, 296302 (2018). Nat. This means paying attention to how we govern, which is how society minimizes vested interests and power inequities and maximizes marginalized interests and transparency. In: The impacts of climate change on human health in the United States: A scientific assessment. Natural climate solutions. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, pp. Plann. Soc. NOAA in your backyard: Education contacts near you, NOAA Sea to Sky: Education resource database, Climate Resilience in Your Community activity book (ES, MS, HS), HEART Force: Colorado environmental hazards collection, Earth science lessons and activities (MS, HS), Ocean Today: Climate Alive! Wiley Interdiscip. Scientists say Arctic warming could be to blame for blasts of extreme cold. Attempts to encourage extractive regions to transition to alternative economies and livelihoods (for example, sustainable farming, renewable energy) have an enduring history. Tiffany H. Morrison. et al. AP'S ASSESSMENT: False. Commun. Compared to the beginning of the 20th century, there are both stronger and more frequent abnormally heavy precipitation events across most of the United States. 1c) are also addressed10,11,13,14. More recent examples, such as family voucher schemes, also seek to bypass traditional patterns of rent-seeking and patronclient relations. Temperature changes in the United States. Curr. New For. Energy Res. 54, 529556 (2021). Broto, V. C. Urban governance and the politics of climate change. Ecol. Radical perspectives for climate protection, insurgency and civil disobedience in a low-carbon era. 1c). We argue that, despite crucial advances in understanding intervention points in complex systems (for example, refs. World Dev. 3, 499504 (2020). 25,26). About one out of four of these "climate cheaters" believe life will improve due to climate change, versus four percent among non-cheaters. Transdisciplinary researchers have also recently converged on the key conclusion that tackling proximate impacts and causes through modifying thresholds and feedbacks (Fig. All authors drafted, reviewed and edited the paper. ISSN 1758-678X (print). The first finding is that six greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur . BioScience 52, 143150 (2002). Geist, H. J. Emergency? Some living things are able to respond to climate change; some plants are blooming earlier and some species may expand their geographic range. 56, 102335 (2021). The ocean absorbs about 30% of the carbon dioxide that is released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102638 (2022). In the United States, state-level carbon prices range from $5 to $15 a ton. The warmer it gets, the greater the risk for more severe changes to the climate and the earth's system. Unlike Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Harvey covered a large area with extreme precipitation falling over a longer period of time. Environ. Google Scholar. Morrison, T. H. et al. It is critically important that proposed interventions are tempered with a more nuanced understanding of radical. Climate change impacts are seen throughout every aspect of the world we live in. Change 10, 322328 (2020). Blythe, J. et al. A 'Radical' Chemical That Helps Keep Our Atmosphere Stable Before we can determine how fragile or stable Earth's atmosphere is, we first have to define what those terms mean. Brazils soy moratorium. Climate change affects all Americansregardless of socioeconomic statusand many impacts are projected to worsen. Many regions of the world will be unrecognizable, and some will be increasingly uninhabitable, as global average temperatures rise 1.5C or more above pre-industrial levels1. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Evidence so far suggests that radical interventions work by generating alternative courses of action, connecting conventional actions to new ones, mobilizing new actors and leveraging existing actions to greater effect19,62,85. conceived the idea and led the analytic design. We thank R. de Sousa de Saboya and J. Lokrantz for assisting with illustrations and M. Lane for their insightful comments and suggestions. Shimamoto, J. Trtanj & J.L. Kunkel & A.N. PLoS Biol. Maycock, and B.C. & Constas, M. A. At the bottom of the typology is (1) Palliative intervention. & Fielding, K. S. Relationships among conspiratorial beliefs, conservatism and climate scepticism across nations. Change 12, e736 (2021). CAS Annu. An inventory of tactics includes direct community action, civil disobedience, and scientific and elite protest59. Researchers will look at the impacts of land use and climate change on water quality, specifically looking at the Minnesota River Basin. In: Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States: Fourth national climate assessment, volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Dambacher, B. M., Stilwell, M. T. & McGee, J. S. Clearing the air: avoiding conflicts of interest within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Heavy precipitation is projected to increase throughout the century to potentially three times the historical average. 1b) or fundamentally reducing root drivers to avoid transgressing a socialecological threshold (Fig. COP23 Talanoa Dialogue Submission: Where are We? (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2018). A lock (LockA locked padlock) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. The burden of vulnerability is falling disproportionately on island and archipelago populations of the Pacific and the Caribbean, delta communities in South and Southeast Asia, conflict and drought-affected populations in Africa and India, and disadvantaged communities and indigenous peoples across Australasia, Eurasia and the Americas2. Although farmers and researchers may be able to adapt some agricultural techniques and technologies or develop new ones, some changes will be difficult to manage. RF-2021-599) to S.O. Avery, D.R. Nat. the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Hughes, T. P. et al. Termeer, C. J. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, pp. However, what is radical can be elusive. J. However, the typology does not assume that we must start at the bottom nor pass through every type to get to deep radical. Nat. Our food supply depends on climate and weather conditions. Avery, D.R. Chang. ISSN 1758-6798 (online) United Nations Environment Programme. 15, 044016 (2020). Extreme levels of Antarctic snowfall brought about by climate change have caused entire populations of seabirds to fail to breed, scientists have warned. An official website of the United States government. Nohrstedt, D., Mazzoleni, M., Parker, C. F. & Di Baldassarre, G. Exposure to natural hazard events unassociated with policy change for improved disaster risk reduction. Stewart (eds.)]. ICES J. Mar. Stewart (eds.)]. Rich Goldberg, president of a communications firm that caters specifically to the propane and heating oil industry, wrote in a blog that New York has "the most radical climate change legislation . Easterling, K.E. Wiley Interdiscip. and JavaScript. 1c)10,11. Environ. Politics 30, 266284 (2021). Political scientists have interrogated how improving the diversity and critical mass of influential actors in policy subsystems can improve local acceptability of forest-based climate mitigation31. Kunkel, K.L.M. And sociologists have highlighted how shareholder activism can manipulate economic drivers by controlling the financial and fiscal underpinnings of large corporations34. Clim. In: Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States: Fourth national climate assessment, volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Chang.) Easterling, K.E. U.S. Resilience education is vitally important for city planners, emergency managers, educators, communicators, and all other community members to prepare for climate change. Hinrichs, C. C. Transitions to sustainability: a change in thinking about food systems change? Examples comprise the Fridays for the Future movement, the youth climate movement and the proposed scientific moratorium on climate change research28,60,61. Nevertheless, tactical interventions create powerful social movements that increase the moral pressure and economic incentive for climate action. Interventions can thus be designed to manipulate thresholds, feedbacks and drivers in climate-impacted systems (Fig. Commitments to Net Zero Double in Less than a Year: 21 September 2020 (UN Climate Change, 2020). Some invasive or nuisance species, like lionfish and ticks, may thrive in even more places because of climate change. Interventions that tackle asymmetrical power relations. Article Rubenstein, S.R. 1a) and feedbacks (Fig. Capstick, S. et al. 544, 551552. Shimamoto, J. Trtanj & J.L. (2018). (eds) The Ethics of Geoengineering the Global Climate: Justice, Legitimacy and Governance (Routledge, 2021). Polit. Clim. Lewis, T.K. Weiskopf, S. Carter, J. Peterson, L. Crozier, M. Fogarty, S. Gaichas, K.J.W. Science 364, 132134 (2019). Wuebbles, D.R. Influential strands of social science, for example, focus on producing desirable transitions and transformation, triggering or avoiding social tipping points, and escaping traps6,10,11,18,19,20. Sheppard, S. R. et al. Clim. Degrowth and post-growth policies organize economies around principles of equity and sufficiency rather than GDP74. Burch, S. et al. Meadows, D. Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System (Sustainability Institute, 1999). Law 32, 5381 (2020). Change 39, 170179 (2016). (video series), Ocean acidification and shellfish farming (video), Understanding the marine heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest (60 minute webinar), Managing national marine sanctuaries in a changing ocean (60 minute webinar), Communicating climate change: Resources for making it stick (60 minute webinar), The Climate Explorer: Climate data and projections, Climate at a glance: Temperature, precipitation, and other weather data, U.S. Drought Portal: maps, data and forecasts, The impacts of climate change on human health in the United States, Quarterly regional impact reports and outlooks, Talking with IPCC vice-chair Ko Barrett: On climate change and consensus building, Ocean acidification Q&A with NOAA scientist Shallin Busch, Indo-Pacific Ocean warming is changing global rainfall patterns (2019), New research examines climate changes role in 2018 extreme weather events (2019), Does "global warming" mean it's warming everywhere? Nat. Clim. Perspect. Clim. For all the sound and fury of climate change denialists, self-deluding politicians and a very bewildered global public, the science behind climate change is rock solid while the impacts . The study in Nature Climate Change found that human-induced climate change increased the annual average temperature globally in the warm season by nearly three degrees, to 73.4 degrees. You can explore more at the Global Climate Dashboard. Here, concerned global citizens can support (5) Strategic intervention to correct corruption and power asymmetries by restoring accountability, legitimacy, integrity and transparency to governance.